4 Hot Housing Markets We’d Have a “Quick Flip” or “Long-Term Rental” With

Kailyn:
Hello and welcome to the On the Market Podcast. I’m your host today, Kailyn Bennett. And I may be an unfamiliar voice actually on the air, but I am here every single episode. I am the senior producer at the BiggerPockets Network and I was one of the creators of the show with Dave Meyer. With me today is my two dear friends, Kathy Fettke and James Dainard. Hi guys.

Kathy:
Hey.

James:
So excited to be hanging out with the boss lady.

Kailyn:
Yeah, James always calls me the boss lady, which is so funny, because he owns a massive business and I just boss him around on a very small part of his job on the podcast. But we actually gave Dave and Henry the day off, so we thought it’d be fun for me to sit in and host the show, because we have a banger of an episode today.

Kathy:
We do. I can’t wait to get started.

Kailyn:
So as everybody knows, we like to get creative on how we share data and tell stories about the market here, and Valentine’s Day is coming up, so we thought it’d be fun to get a little spicy in here. So a lot of 2024 hottest market lists are coming out right now, and I pulled one of them. This one is actually from Yahoo Finance and Mortgage News Daily also posted the same list of the markets that they think are going to perform the best this coming year. And we thought it’d be fun to swipe right or swipe left on those markets with Valentine’s Day coming up. So I had ChatGPT write me a Tinder dating profile description for each of these markets. And what we’re going to do is I’m going to go ahead and read them. We’re going to discuss the market dynamics and James and Kathy are going to swipe right or swipe left on each of these markets, which is pretty fun.

Kathy:
Considering we’re both married, we really probably never had the chance to do this.

Kailyn:
Oh, have you guys never done online dating?

Kathy:
No, I haven’t.

James:
Not me.

Kailyn:
No, you haven’t. James, did you ever do online dating?

James:
No. Nope. Just the old school way.

Kailyn:
That’s how I met my partner too. But before that, I 100% did online dating. All right guys, well let’s get into this hot list of markets.
So, coming in at number four on our hottest market list is San Diego, California. So like I said, I’m going to read this Tinder dating profile for this market and then we’ll discuss it.

James:
Can I get A little clarity? Which way is swipe left? I really don’t know. Is it-

Kailyn:
Oh, you don’t know how this works. Okay. Swipe left means you’re done. You’re not interested in this person. You don’t want to engage in the conversation. Swipe right means, “I don’t know, I’m kind of interested. Maybe I’ll message them. Maybe I’ll take them to dinner.”

James:
Got it. Right for keep, left for toss. Got it.

Kailyn:
Okay. So I’m going to go ahead and read this first description for San Diego, California. “Sun kissed adventurer, where every day feels like a vacation. From catching the waves at Pacific Beach to exploring the vibrant Gaslamp Quarter, I’m always up for new experiences. Passionate about all my 1.3 million residents. If you like to spend, I’m the market for you. For only 995,000, a house here can be all yours. Swipe right if you’re ready for a laid back vibe and endless sunshine.”
Okay guys, that was pretty steamy. So let’s talk about the actual facts about San Diego here. The unemployment rate is 3.2%, which is relatively low. Median rent is $2,900 and according to the Census Bureau, the average income is 98,652. So, what are you guys thinking? Is this a market that you would actually consider in your investing journey?

Kathy:
Oh, this is a hot and sexy market, and I would ride those waves anytime, but I’m going to tell you, it comes with high maintenance. It’s a high maintenance relationship. I would say short-term, a quickie, definitely not a long-term relationship for me. What about you James?

James:
Sometimes in SoCal, it’s a little bit more high maintenance to date down there. That’s just the reality of what it is. Just like Kathy, I would swipe right, but for a short period of time, a one hitter quitter on this one for sure. I think this market would be great for flipping. You can get in and out, have a great time, make some money, but then you want to get out as soon as possible. And the reason being is I love San Diego, I think the quality of life is amazing, but the tenant and landlord laws have been so brutal over the last two years, even in 2024, they are now changing to where landlords are going to have to pay three months. If you want to move a tenant out of your properties, you’re going to have to cut them a check for three months rent to move them out and help with that process. And so, again, short term, not long term, I’d be in and out. I think it’s a great market to make some mass appreciation, but then move on to the next one.

Kathy:
Yeah. James, I agree with you. If I could find a San Diego broken down, down in the dumps, distressed and fix it up, have a fixer relationship, that could work. But otherwise, the long-term hold, not a keeper.

Kailyn:
Not even with all the tourism coming in? No short-term rentals for you out there? They have 28.8 million people per year visit the San Diego market to vacation.

Kathy:
I would have to look into the short-term rental laws there. I did not do my homework on that.

James:
There’s been a lot of regulation passed on that and that’s why I think it’s a very short-term market. In and out, have a good time, leave, but short-term rental market got massively changed over the last 12 months. It’s more of a midterm rental market now. A lot of regulation on the short-term. And then in addition to 2024, now you’re going to have to pay tenants three months rent if you want to move them out of the property. And so it’s not a landlord friendly city. Again, in and out, make your money, move on to the next one. Don’t settle down in this place.

Kailyn:
All right, so we’re doing a quick date with San Diego and then we’re having a speedy breakup is what I’m hearing.

Kathy:
Yeah, otherwise I’m going to be the sugar mama for the rest of its life. I’m just not doing that. You’re going to pay me, I’m not paying you.

Kailyn:
Yeah, I hear you, Kathy. You deserve to be treated in all of your dating with cash flow.

Kathy:
Thank you.

Kailyn:
Or equity. All right everybody. That was our first market on our 2024 hottest markets list. After this quick break, we’re going to be back with three more markets that you may want to date, you may want to marry or you may just want to swipe left on. We’ll be right back.
Welcome back to On the Market Podcast. I am here with my two dear friends, Kathy Fettke and James Dainard. And for Valentine’s Day, we are reviewing four of the 2024 hottest markets, due to Yahoo Finance’s lists, and we’re determining, I don’t know, if we want to date them, or marry them, or invest in them. So we’re going to go to the number three spot on this list, which is Rochester, New York, which was a shock to me when I was doing all the research for the show.
So here is the Tinder dating profile for Rochester, New York. “Roaming through the flower city, savoring every Kodak moment, upstate New Yorker with a love for four seasons. From winter wonderlands to festival filled summers. By day I’m immersed in the city’s rich history and by night I’m exploring Rochester’s diverse culinary scene. Let’s make memories in a new house for the bargain price of only $239,000. If you want to try me out first, you can rent me for $1,160. If you appreciate local charm, endless festivals and a dash of snow, swipe right.”
All right guys, so let’s get into the hard hitting facts about Rochester here. A little fun fact about Rochester when I was doing research is actually Kodak, the film company, was founded here, which I thought was really interesting. So there’s a couple facts about Rochester that are pretty interesting. It is a pretty big university college town, which brings down the median income. So, the median income that I found most regularly on the internet was $44,000, which I think is really due just to the student population. The metro area of Rochester is 749,000. Unemployment rate is 3.6%. And like we said in the description, average rent is $1,160 and bargain price houses, the median price for houses sold in November was $239,000. So, are you guys into Rochester? Is this a maybe date for you?

Kathy:
Rochester, you may not be sexy, but you are dependable and that I will consider. Even though you’re in the photo industry, you may not be super photogenic. That’s okay. That’s okay, because what you are is perhaps a little boring, but I could be in a long-term relationship with you. Unlike San Diego, I would still need to have San Diego on the side, maybe some visits, but you, you I would be in it for the long haul. You work hard and you’d be there for me. I would marry you.

Kailyn:
Oh wow, Kathy’s swiping a hard right. And there’s something to be said for boring, but dependable. I’m sensing some pretty dependable cash flow, maybe some rent by the room strategies due to the university. So, I don’t know, maybe boring is the new sexy. All right, James, what do you think?

James:
I’m going to swipe right for Rochester as well. Even though, just like Kathy said, I think it’s a little bit boring, but sometimes boring is great for the long-term. The affordability in housing is great. You can start dating, you don’t have to take them out to fancy dinners. You can go to Red Robin. Right, so you’re in early. And then the appreciation is great. The long-term love, again, maybe not as exciting, but rents, I think they’re up 10% year over year. And so you can get in cheap. It’s a cheap date with a lot of upside and reward on the long-term factor. Sometimes it’s about finding a good partner, not that exciting one.

Kailyn:
I love to hear that and I have to get on a quick tangent and spoil a fact that I don’t think we’ve talked about on the market, which is when James was in college, he was Red Robin waiter of the year and it’s one of my favorite facts about James Dainard.

Kathy:
I did not know that.

Kailyn:
So the fact that you brought up Red Robin as your non-fancy date does not surprise me at all.

James:
You get bottomless fries. You don’t have to pay for another order. It’s bottomless, it’s free, it’s a nice cheap date and keeps the date going for free.

Kailyn:
There’s some really, really strategy relationship advice right there. Well guys, I like Rochester too. I think it’s a great place to swipe right on. I think that there’s a lot of stability within this market, because a lot of the economy is based on manufacturing. So, there’s a lot of big plants out there. And so even though there’s a high student population, I think that you’re going to have pretty strong market fundamentals in general.

Kathy:
The only red flag and concern I have about Rochester is the family, and that family, you might have a great partner, but you got to consider the family, which is in New York, which is a high tax state. So, I would be keeping that in mind. I also don’t love the cold winters, but I don’t have to live with you. I would marry you, but I don’t have to be with you all the time.

Kailyn:
Oh, Kathy’s in a long distance relationship now.

James:
Of course, she has San Diego on the side.

Kathy:
That’s right. I might hang out a lot with San Diego, but we can be married.

James:
And the only other red flag on Rochester would be, as we know college has gotten so expensive and there’s starting to be maybe a shift in America that; don’t go to college, why go? And so these university cities, if this keeps going over the next 10, 20 years, college gets more and more expensive and people start revolting against it, they could get flatlined in the future, because there’s no more college, there’s no more tenants, and then you’re in big, big trouble. Then you’re stuck with Rochester with not a whole lot of upside.

Kailyn:
That’s some pretty ominous headlines there. And we actually are going to address this on the show in the near future. I am working on getting a really great guest to talk about college and the future of college with everything changing from the cost to Gen Zers being less interested in it. So stay tuned in the coming weeks and we’re going to bring that story straight to you. All right guys, well I’m still hearing that we’re interested in Rochester, so we’re going to keep this as a swipe right. Coming in at number two on this list, I want to get back to California, the sunshine, the beach, the fun love and spirit. So, I’d actually never heard of this market. It’s called Oxnard, California. Is that how you say it, Kathy, Oxnard? Oxnard?

Kathy:
Oxnard.

Kailyn:
Oxnard. Okay. All right, so coming in at number two is Oxnard, California, and here is its dating profile. “Chasing sunsets and sea breezes in the heart of Oxnard, California. Dreamer, who’s all about that coastal life, whether it’s strolling along the Mandalay Bay or indulging in the local flavors at the Oxnard Farmers Market. I’m here for all the good vibes. Live in the lap of luxury and be ready to open your wallet. At a $1 million price tag for a home, I’m worth every pretty penny. If you’re up for sandy toes and spontaneous adventures, swipe right and let’s make waves together.” Kathy, I think you’re probably not crazy far from this market. So, do you know a little bit more about it?

Kathy:
I do. It’s only a half an hour away from me. I used to think when Oxnard was a bit younger, it would’ve been a great time to date. Right now, it’s a little older, a little bit more expensive. And if I’m going to choose between the two and they’re the same price point, I’m going back with my sexy San Diego, if I’m going to be spending the same amount of money. Some will say that Oxnard is up and coming, it’s about an hour from LA and a lot of people are moving out of LA and into the suburbs, but it’s way suburb. With that said, great place to visit. There could be possible deals found there, distressed opportunity. There’s not a huge job center and that concerns me. A lot of it is agricultural, but that could be changing.

Kailyn:
Yeah. And just to give just a little bit of market dynamics for our audience, just before James jumps in, I saw him shaking his head, so he may want to date this city. The average income for the residents in Oxnard is $90,409, but we have take into consideration that this is in California, which doesn’t get you quite as far. The nice thing about it is that the average rent is $3,200. So a little bit on the higher side. I don’t know if it makes up for that $1 million price tag, but we’ll take it. It has a little bit smaller of a population of only 202,000. And the thing that did concern me a little bit is the unemployment rate is 5.4%. So that is quite a bit higher than I think we’re seeing on a national average right now.
James, tell me, I know that you love your yachting, so I wouldn’t be surprised if you would date this market just for your boat, but what do you think about it?

James:
I’m swiping right. I think Oxnard is actually the low maintenance San Diego. Median income is around the same, very similar. Average home price is about 20% cheaper, median home price. And so, it’s like you get all the upside of San Diego without having to expend all your money on it. And I do believe what we’ve seen over the last two years is people are chasing quality of living and affordability, and we saw that spread out through all the coastal towns. And Oxnard’s one of the more affordable beach towns in California and it’s really hard to find anything affordable in California. So as people are starting to lead California right now, Oxnard’s population is actually increasing year-over-year.
And that I think the reason being is sometimes even with all the problems you can get from California, people don’t want to leave. It’s got a fantastic lifestyle, the best weather probably in the nation, and Oxnard’s going to be a good spot for people, because they can actually afford it, because beggars can’t be choosers. If you want to be on the beach town, you want to go to what makes sense and that’s why I really like Oxnard; lower maintenance, cheaper entry with all the upside of San Diego.

Kailyn:
Okay. That’s a strong case. And just to give our audience a little bit more information, the forecasted home sales price change, so how much a house is looking to go up into 2024, 3.3%. So, we will be seeing some nice potential growth in that area. So Kathy, I think you’re going to swipe left?

Kathy:
Yeah, I’d probably swipe right just to check it out, just have that coffee date. Yeah, and look around. Funny story, when I was probably 19, I found a driver’s license on the ground and it was from Oxnard and, like you, I had no idea where that was. I was from Northern California, but I used that driver’s license as my fake ID. And I remember going into a bar and the bouncer said, “Where’s Oxnard?” And I looked at him and I had no clue, so I didn’t get in, it didn’t work. I should have done my research on Oxnard then and I still need to do it now. I think there could be some opportunity and I do think it would be worth investigating. It’s going to be, again, it’s going to be more expensive than Rochester.

Kailyn:
Oh, yeah.

Kathy:
By a lot, by four times.

Kailyn:
Yeah, I think four times. I don’t know, Kathy. But what I’m hearing from this driver’s license story and now is this could be the long game for you. This could be a hidden gem, you could be playing the long game. I propose next time James and I are in California, we all go to Oxnard and get some tacos and take a little tour of this beach town and see if we’re interested in it.

Kathy:
I like it. Let’s do it.

Kailyn:
All right everyone, so far we have covered three of our four hottest markets and right after the break, we’re going to be hearing about the number one hottest market. We’ll be right back.
All right everyone, welcome back to the show and we have our number one top market according to Yahoo Finance’s list here. And I was honestly shocked when I read this list and saw this particular market as number one, which is why I chose this list out of all the million prediction lists that were online, because it’s like a sleeper of a market, it’s something I never would’ve picked through all the data that I looked through as a senior producer at the network. And our number one market is Toledo, Ohio. It’s the quiet ones that really get you, I guess.
All right, here is Toledo, Ohio’s, Tinder dating profile. “Midwestern soul, navigating life in the glass city, where the heart is as warm as the people. From strolling the scenic Toledo Botanical Garden to catching a Mud Hens game…” For those of you who don’t know, that is baseball. I had to Google that myself. “I find joy in simple pleasures. My median home price is only 200,000, so your money will go far here. Let’s create our own story in the city of bridges. If you appreciate Midwestern charm, good company and a hint of adventure, swipe right.”
So something really interesting about Toledo that I found out when I was doing the research for this show, is that the first glass manufacturers were in Toledo, Ohio, in the United States, which I thought was really interesting. And right now it’s mainly an auto manufacturing town. So, definitely a little bit of trivia for you there. So, some metrics about Toledo is that the average salary is quite a bit lower. So it’s 53,350, median rent is $888 on the nose. And like I said, the median home price is 200,000. Population is only 268,000 in Toledo proper, and unemployment rate is relatively low at 3.6%. So, I don’t know guys, I like the median home price of a house, but I’m unsure about the other market dynamics. James, let’s start with you. You interested in getting this market’s number?

James:
Yeah, that’s a hard lot for me. It’s just not sexy. When I think about long-term, if I’m going to date someone for the long-term, there has to be some upside and growth together, and there is growth in this market. And I think, depending on who you want to date, it could be a good option, but it’s just a little boring for me and I don’t do well with boring. And if I’m looking at this, the average rent growth is 5 to 7%, the average rent income is 800 bucks. Yes, you’re getting good percentage of growth, but very low reward. And so, Ohio’s not for me. It’s a little too… It’s stable, and if you want that long-term relationship that’s going to give you the same thing every day, then go for that. But I got to mix it up a little bit.

Kailyn:
Yeah, the other big red flag that I saw, when I looked at a lot of the other markets, we were seeing population growth, even if it’s a modest percentage. And the thing with Toledo is that it’s pretty stagnant. So, I don’t think a lot of people are moving there. Doing research, I don’t see a lot of major tech companies or anything going in. So, Kathy, I know that that is a metric that you really value and look at. How are you looking at this particular market?

Kathy:
I look at Toledo like, “Hey, there’s someone out there for you. Don’t give up, because you’re good, conservative, old-fashioned, dependable, but you’re not going to make me rich. And so why would I date you if that’s my goal?”

Kailyn:
Kathy’s a gold digger is what we just learned.

Kathy:
“I’m just not sure you’re going to give me the cash flow or the long-term wealth that I’m looking for, but I like you and I know there’s somebody there for you. So stay with it, especially since you made it onto the cover of Forbes. Look at you, look at you. You’re going to have all kinds of options.”

Kailyn:
Yeah. And I’d love to learn the reason why you guys think this market made number one on the list. So, the thing that they had on here was forecasted home sale price changes, they’re predicting it to go up 8.3% and home sale changes, they’re looking at 14%. So it sounds like there’s more inventory on the market with higher prices and maybe that’s why it made the top of the list, but I don’t know, I was confused on that pick. James, why do you think that they put this at number one?

James:
I think it’s just the affordability for investors just chasing the Midwest in general. And you have to look at it both ways, it is cheap to get into, so a lot of first-time investors can get into that market. They can get some assets. The assets have good growth. 8% year-over-year rent growth, especially in 2023, that’s good, because a lot of rents were flat in a lot of markets. And so if you are that first-time [inaudible 00:23:10] investor that wants to get into an affordable price point with steady rent metrics, it can be attractive. But like you said, it can also get stagnant. I feel like it’s that… What is that saying? It’s that two-year slump in relationships, where it’s fun and exciting, because you’re getting into your first deal and you’re like, “Yes, I’m an investor and this is awesome.” And then after two years you’re like, “I got to get out of this place.” And staleness kills relationships and I just feel like it’s a good starter, but you’re probably going to wind up with a different person after two years.

Kathy:
Now, if Toledo decides to invest in itself, get some self-help, do some education and grow… So no, I’m kidding. But there is an article from WTOL, it says, “Master plan calls for more growth in downtown Toledo.” This is what I look for. I look for cities that are going to invest in themselves and grow, just like James said. So if that is in the plan, and also if the family grows, what I mean by that is Oklahoma’s looking at becoming a no-income tax state like Texas, and if that happens, we might see all of Oklahoma grow. So this is a market that I don’t want to swipe left or right on. I just want to sit there and watch and see if there’s some change and look at it at a later date.

Kailyn:
So you’re going to stalk this market is what I’m hearing.

Kathy:
I’m going to stock it for a little while, yeah.

Kailyn:
I think that that’s totally reasonable. For a first-time investor, I do like the idea of this market, but I know the thing that both of you guys are looking for is really strong appreciation plays. And I don’t think that Toledo meets that for you guys. And I think you’re both at the point in your investing journey where you’re really truly looking for those market dynamics of; what is the next Austin?

Kathy:
Yeah. Once I’m already rich and old, than I might consider Toledo, because it could be some good steady cashflow.

Kailyn:
Yeah, but you just need to go talk to their Chamber of Commerce, ask them to do some self-help, all that stuff.

Kathy:
Yep.

Kailyn:
All right guys, well this was fun. I think this is our new Valentine’s Day tradition.

James:
What I did learn about Kathy, is she did swipe right on every city, because she’ll still check it out. So she likes to play the field.

Kailyn:
Oh, Kathy’s a player.

Kathy:
No harm in having a little coffee, networking’s everything.

Kailyn:
I like that lesson to round out this show, keep your networks and keep your possibilities open. You never know when that right person or market’s going to come your way.

Kathy:
That’s right.

Kailyn:
All right guys, well this was so much fun. James, if people want to learn more about you, where can they do that?

James:
A good place to find me is not on Tinder, but jamesdainard.com or jdainflips on Instagram.

Kathy:
Likewise, I wouldn’t even know how to set it up, but you can find me on Instagram at kathyfettke or at realwealth.com.

Kailyn:
All right everyone, my name is Kailyn Bennett. You can find me on biggerpockets.com. I think it’s [inaudible 00:26:04] Kailyn Hope Bennett or my Instagram is kailynhopebennett. We appreciate any and all show ideas here and also if you have a couple of minutes, leave us a five star review. It actually really does help. Thank you everyone. We’ll catch you on the next episode of On the Market.

Dave Meyer:
On The Market was created by me, Dave Meyer, and Kailyn Bennett. The show is produced by Kailyn Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico Content, and we want to extend a big thank you to everyone at BiggerPockets for making this show possible.

Kailyn:
What’s the one piece of love advice that you would give our audience? Like true love advice?

Kathy:
Guys, be curious. Be curious. I know you want to always solve and protect your lady, and sometimes we just want to be heard. So ask questions. Ask questions, ask questions, ask questions, and then ask, the final question would be, “Would you like some advice?” So, that has helped Rich and I get to 27 years of marriage this year.

Kailyn:
Holy cow. That’s so impressive. You guys are still so in love. That’s really great to watch. All right, James, let’s hear it. What is your number one piece of love advice for our audience?

James:
I think that one of the most important things in relationships is balance and being on an equal play. And one thing I do know is people go in and out of relationships, but finding the right partner when you settle down is the most important thing that you guys can grow together, you can set your goals together and really elevate each other. And a partner is going to be with you for the rest of your life, so don’t be just focusing on those fun things. Focus on the person that you can build together, because the more you build together, the happier you are, the more connected you are and the happier your relationship’s going to be.