Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of Indian companies rated by Moody’s will grow 5%-10% over the next two years as prices of key raw materials like crude oil and coking coal retreat from 2022-highs, it said in a note dated Thursday.
State-owned oil marketing companies – Indian Oil Corp , Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd – will be the major beneficiaries of slide in crude prices.
However, it will also hurt the earnings of upstream oil companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corp and Oil India as their revenues will take a hit, Moody’s said.
Moody’s said JSW Steel will benefit the most from declining coking coal prices as its operating costs will reduce, while Tata Steel is likely to see limited gains due to lower profitability in its Europe business.
Oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries and top cement maker Ultratech Cement are also tipped to see strong earnings growth over the next two years, it added.
Moody’s said capital spending will remain high at nearly 4 trillion rupees, with Reliance, ONGC, IOC, telecom firms and steelmakers incurring the bulk of the expenditure, but it is unlikely to drag earnings. “Expected earnings growth combined with prudent balance sheet management over the last 12-18 months will buffer the impact of high capital spending.”
India’s young population, steady demand and rising spending power would keep domestic consumption “robust” at least till the end of the year, while sustained government infra spending will support business activity in key industrial sectors, Moody’s added.
