With over two decades of experience in coronavirus research, Shi and her team at the Wuhan Institute of Virology recently published a paper in July 2023. In this paper, they assessed the risk of 40 different coronavirus species spilling over into human populations. Alarmingly, half of these species were classified as “highly risky.” Among these, six species have already been documented as causing diseases in humans, and evidence suggests that three others have caused diseases or infected various animal species. The study’s conclusion was unequivocal, stating that “it is almost certain that there will be future disease emergence, and it is highly likely a [coronavirus] disease again.”
The research was grounded in a comprehensive analysis of viral characteristics, including factors like population, genetic diversity, host species, and previous instances of zoonotic transmission—instances where diseases jump from animals to humans. Furthermore, the study identified key hosts of these pathogens, which encompass natural hosts such as bats and rodents, as well as potential intermediary hosts like camels, civets, pigs, or pangolins. Additionally, they developed swift and precise testing tools for actively monitoring these high-risk viruses.
Recently, Shi’s paper gained significant traction on Chinese social media, coinciding with a decision by US federal agencies to prohibit funding for the Wuhan Institute of Virology for the next decade. Certain US officials have accused the institute of engaging in risky gain-of-function experiments with bat coronaviruses, fueling suspicions that the Covid-19 pandemic originated from a Chinese laboratory. However, US intelligence documents from June have indicated that there is no conclusive evidence supporting the lab leak hypothesis.
Shi’s ominous warning arrives at a time when the world is still grappling with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, which has claimed the lives of over 4.5 million people and infected more than 230 million individuals worldwide.
